The 2022 season has passed the three-quarters mark, and we still don’t know who is going to win the Cy Young Award in either league.
It’s common for a frontrunner to have broken away from the pack by late August, yet there has been no such surge this year. Both leagues feature a pair of candidates with solid credentials.
The American League race is a virtual tie, based on my calculations of base value. The ageless ace of the Houston Astros, Justin Verlander, leads the AL with a BV of minus-95, which means he has surrendered 95 fewer bases than the typical big-league pitcher under the same circumstances.
That’s an impressive feat. But Verlander’s young counterpart with the Tampa Bay Rays, Shane McClanahan, is right on his heels at minus-94.
The gap is a bit wider, though not substantial, in the National League. Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins is setting the pace with a base value of minus-92. The runner-up is Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves at minus-84.
All statistics are as of August 21, the precise day on which the 2022 season was 75 percent complete. I presented comparable statistics for hitters, using the same cutoff, in last Tuesday’s newsletter.
This is the point at which I explain base value. The first step in determining a pitcher’s BV is the calculation of his ratio of bases allowed per out, abbreviated as BPO. This is the process: (1) Count the number of bases a pitcher allowed through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, sacrifice hits, and sacrifice flies. (2) Count the number of outs the pitcher accumulated. (3) Divide the total of bases by the number of outs.
The typical big-league pitcher gave up .661 bases per out during the first three-quarters of 2022. Verlander allowed 190 bases and secured 431 outs, yielding a tiny BPO of just .441.
BV is calculated by multiplying a given pitcher’s outs by the BPO for all pitchers. The average pitcher in Verlander’s shoes would have surrendered 285 bases (431 outs times a .661 BPO). His actual total of 190 bases is 95 is below the norm, which is his BV.
It’s always important to remember, of course, that BV works two ways. Batters strive for the highest positive number, but the pitchers listed today aim to dive as deep into negative territory as possible.
Scroll down for several pitching breakdowns, starting with the 10 leaders in base value at the three-quarters mark in each league, followed by the pitchers with the worst BVs. The final two lists contain the best and worst BVs for each of the 30 clubs as of August 21.
A new installment will arrive in your email each Tuesday and Friday morning
-
1. Justin Verlander, Astros, -95 BV
-
2. Shane McClanahan, Rays, -94
-
3. Framber Valdez, Astros, -67
-
4. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians, -57
-
5. Shane Bieber, Guardians, -56
-
6. Nestor Cortes, Yankees, -55
-
7. Alek Manoah, Blue Jays, -47
-
8. Shohei Ohtani, Angels, -45
-
9. Triston McKenzie, Guardians, -44
-
10. Jason Adam, Rays, -43
-
10. Gerrit Cole, Yankees, -43
-
10. Drew Rasmussen, Rays, -43
-
1. Sandy Alcantara, Marlins, -92 BV
-
2. Max Fried, Braves, -84
-
3. Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers, -74
-
4. Corbin Burnes, Brewers, -67
-
5. Aaron Nola, Phillies, -64
-
6. Max Scherzer, Mets, -62
-
7. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks, -60
-
8. Miles Mikolas, Cardinals, -58
-
8. Spencer Strider, Braves, -58
-
10. Yu Darvish, Padres, -57
-
1. Bruce Zimmermann, Orioles, 49 BV
-
2. Lucas Giolito, White Sox, 48
-
2. Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays, 48
-
2. Adam Oller, Athletics, 48
-
5. Marco Gonzales, Mariners, 46
-
5. Spencer Howard, Rangers, 46
-
7. Kyle Bradish, Orioles, 45
-
7. Carlos Hernandez, Royals, 45
-
7. Jordan Lyles, Orioles, 45
-
10. Jose Berrios, Blue Jays, 42
-
1. Patrick Corbin, Nationals, 94 BV
-
2. Mike Minor, Reds, 68
-
3. Elieser Hernandez, Marlins, 57
-
4. Vladimir Gutierrez, Reds, 54
-
5. Josiah Gray, Nationals, 52
-
6. Chad Kuhl, Rockies, 50
-
7. Joan Adon, Nationals, 48
-
7. Kyle Freeland, Rockies, 48
-
9. Trevor Rogers, Marlins, 47
-
9. Antonio Senzatela, Rockies, 47
-
Angels — top BV: Shohei Ohtani, -45; bottom BV: Chase Silseth, 22
-
Astros — top BV: Justin Verlander, -95; bottom BV: Phil Maton, 14
-
Athletics — top BV: Cole Irvin, -40; bottom BV: Adam Oller, 48
-
Blue Jays — top BV: Alek Manoah, -47; bottom BV: Yusei Kikuchi, 48
-
Guardians — top BV: Emmanuel Clase, -57; bottom BV: Anthony Castro, Aaron Civale, and Kirk McCarty, 20
-
Mariners — top BV: Paul Sewald, -37; bottom BV: Marco Gonzales, 46
-
Orioles — top BV: Felix Bautista, -29; bottom BV: Bruce Zimmermann, 49
-
Rangers — top BV: Brock Burke and Martin Perez, -34; bottom BV: Spencer Howard, 46
-
Rays — top BV: Shane McClanahan, -94; bottom BV: Josh Fleming, 22
-
Red Sox — top BV: Michael Wacha, -41; bottom BV: Connor Seabold, 30
-
Royals — top BV: Brady Singer, -24; bottom BV: Carlos Hernandez, 45
-
Tigers — top BV: Tarik Skubal, -30; bottom BV: Elvin Rodriguez, 37
-
Twins — top BV: Jhoan Duran, -22; bottom BV: Yennier Cano, 19
-
White Sox — top BV: Dylan Cease, -39; bottom BV: Lucas Giolito, 48
-
Yankees — top BV: Nestor Cortes, -55; bottom BV: Frankie Montas, 12
-
Braves — top BV: Max Fried, -84; bottom BV: Ian Anderson, 18
-
Brewers — top BV: Corbin Burnes, -67; bottom BV: Jason Alexander, 26
-
Cardinals — top BV: Miles Mikolas, -58; bottom BV: Matthew Liberatore, 24
-
Cubs — top BV: Scott Effross, -25; bottom BV: Matt Swarmer, 34
-
Diamondbacks — top BV: Zac Gallen, -60; bottom BV: Madison Bumgarner, 46
-
Dodgers — top BV: Tony Gonsolin, -74; bottom BV: Garrett Cleavinger, 9
-
Giants — top BV: Carlos Rodon, -54; bottom BV: Anthony DeSclafani, 27
-
Marlins — top BV: Sandy Alcantara, -92; bottom BV: Elieser Hernandez, 57
-
Mets — top BV: Max Scherzer, -62; bottom BV: Thomas Szapucki, 22
-
Nationals — top BV: Carl Edwards Jr., -18; bottom BV: Patrick Corbin, 94
-
Padres — top BV: Yu Darvish, -57; bottom BV: Sean Manaea, 23
-
Phillies — top BV: Aaron Nola, -64; bottom BV: Bailey Falter, 25
-
Pirates — top BV: Wil Crowe, -27; bottom BV: Zach Thompson and Bryse Wilson, 38
-
Reds — top BV: Alexis Diaz, -30; bottom BV: Mike Minor, 68
-
Rockies — top BV: Daniel Bard, -17; bottom BV: Chad Kuhl, 50
