4 min read
Iga and Ons. The current No. 1 vs. the future No. 2. The two-time French Open champion against the reigning Wimbledon finalist. On Saturday night, one of them – either Poland’s Iga Swiatek (UTR Rating 13.25) or Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur (13.00) – will celebrate her maiden US Open title.
Who’s your pick? Let’s break down the 2022 US Open women’s singles final, with help from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS.
(1) Iga Swiatek (13.25) vs. (5) Ons Jabeur (13.00)
Swiatek has seemingly not yet hit her stride in New York. She’s expressed her displeasure with the balls at the US Open – ”For sure I don’t like the balls. But, on the other hand, I’m here to compete and to play my best tennis” – and she’s not in love with the busy-city vibe of the largest city in the U.S. either.
“It’s great for a few weeks. I wouldn’t choose it as a place to live because I’m more of a person that needs a calm place with the proper environment to rest,” she said. “But, you know, the tournament is great.”
Yet she keeps winning. The world No. 1 is now one match away from her second Grand Slam title of the season.
“For me, actually winning when I’m not feeling perfectly, it’s the best kind of thing and best feeling,” Swiatek said.
For Jabeur, nicknamed the “Minister of Happiness” in Tunisia, the tournament could hardly be going better. She’s dropped only one set through six matches, and in her home country, they apparently even aired her match instead of Champions League soccer.
“In Tunisia, it’s all about soccer. But people were not watching the game, they were watching my game, which is impressive to me,” she said.
She and Swiatek have split their four meetings, including their two hard-court matches. But Jabeur, after falling in her first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon in July, is confident going into her second major championship final.
“I love playing on this surface, and I feel like I know exactly what to do against her,” she said.
Swiatek, though, as Jabeur has acknowledged, doesn’t lose often in finals. The 21-year-old is 9-1 in tour-level finals, which includes an unblemished 6-0 in 2022.
At 62% odds, INSIGHTS predicts Swiatek will move to 7-0. But if Jabeur is going to pull off the upset, Arthur Ashe Stadium seems like the place to do it.
The gap in their UTR Rating shrinks from 00.25 to 00.13 when you compare their Hard UTR Rating, and Jabeur won their most recent hard-court meeting in Cincinnati last year.
“Now maybe I know what to do in the finals,” Jabeur said. “I know it’s going to be very difficult, but I’m going to have to do my best now.”
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 10:00 a.m. EST, September 9, 2022.